What You "Know for Sure" That Could Destroy Your 2026 Strategy
Is your organization ready for the new year? Are you? Do you cherish a learning, agile culture? How resilient are you? Can you deal with sudden changes - or is it time to develop your culture, your strategy, and your change-readiness for the future that lies ahead? Let’s make some plans…
Mark Twain had it right: "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
As you finalize your 2026 plans, the biggest threat isn't what you don't know - it's what you're absolutely certain about that's actually wrong.
The Planning Blind Spots
Most strategic planning focuses on “true known knowns" - things we're confident about. Revenue projections, market trends, competitive landscape. But there are three more dangerous categories:
1. Known Unknowns - Things we and others know we don't know
"We're not sure how AI will impact our industry"
Well, you’re not the only one! Follow this topic closely!
2. Unknown Unknowns - Things we and others don't know we don't know
The disruptions that blindside entire industries
Ask this question that we often forget: "What could blindside us next year that we're not even thinking about?”
Some of our clients’ answers:
"We never thought about supply chain vulnerabilities... until they hit"
"We didn't see the talent shortage coming in our industry"
"We assumed our biggest competitor would stay focused on their core business"
The pattern? The biggest disruptions come from outside our normal planning horizon and business-as-usual mindset.
3. False Truths or False Known Knowns - Things we "know for sure”, but that aren't true - and others might see them differently
"Our customers will never switch to digital"
"Our biggest competitor won't enter this market"
"Remote work is just temporary"
The most dangerous? False Truths. They give us false confidence and make us ignore warning signals.
By the way, the fourth category of this Johari window with a twist, is:
4. Unknown Knowns - Things we know but others don’t
Our secret powers, opportunities, and competitive advantage.
The African Elephant Test
There's an African proverb: "A man who is trampled to death by an elephant is both blind and deaf."
The elephant wasn't invisible or inaudible. The warning signs were there - ground trembling, trumpeting sounds, rustling vegetation.
The same applies to business disruption. The signals are usually there months or years before the "sudden" change hits.
But our false truths act as filters. We dismiss weak signals that contradict what we "know for sure."
A Simple Planning Exercise
Before you finalize your 2026 strategy, do this exercise:
1. List your top 3 assumptions about next year
"Our main competitor will focus on their core business"
"Economic conditions will stabilize"
"Our supply chain is secure"
2. For each assumption, ask:
What if the opposite happened?
What weak signals indicate that this assumption is false?
3. Spend 10 minutes on each “opposite” scenario
4. Identify one small action you could take to prepare for each "opposite scenario"
Don't be so sure - anticipate and prepare
This isn't about being pessimistic - it's about being prepared.
Organizations that regularly challenge their assumptions don't just avoid elephants - they spot opportunities others miss.
While competitors cling to false truths, they're adapting to emerging realities.
The question for your 2026 planning: What are you so sure about that you've stopped looking for contradictory evidence?
Want to learn more about strategic foresight?
Start here with 3 insightful videos on anticipating future changes
Because the most dangerous phrase in strategic planning is: "We know for sure that…"
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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