Navigate uncertainty to become future-fit
According to the World Uncertainty Index, created by economists at Stanford and the International Monetary Fund, uncertainty has been rising steadily over recent decades. If we want to be prepared for possible futures, we need to be able to deal with uncertainty. How do you improve your uncertainty skills as a person and as an organization? Let’s find out.
There is ambiguity and paradox everywhere - the world is more VUCA than before - and the rate of technological change accelerates. For people who like the linear route forward, life is getting harder - and the same is true for organizations.
How do we improve our uncertainty competence? Let’s learn from Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr, who wrote the inspiring and practical book “The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown”. Recommended reading if you want to prepare for the possible futures.
See the possibilities
Uncertainty is here to stay. Learning to face the unknown well is critical to our ability to survive and thrive. Numerous studies across academic fields suggest that people comfortable with uncertainty are more creative and are more successful as entrepreneurs and more effective as leaders.
If we can tolerate uncertainty, and even pursue scenarios in spite of it, we can develop an uncertainty ability - the skill to navigate unknowns both planned (such as starting a new venture or leaving a job) and unplanned (such as losing a job, experiencing a health crisis, or going through a relationship breakdown). The people we admire - the ones who do new and inventive things and those who respond nobly to tragedy - get our admiration because they have developed a healthy relationship with uncertainty, even by seeing and seizing new opportunities.
I like how Nathan and Susannah reframe uncertainty from a scary situation to a situation full of possibilities: “We are all wired to fear the downsides of uncertainty, but we forget that change, creation, transformation, and innovation rarely show up without some measure of it.”
Are you loss-avoiding?
As Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s research showed, a loss hits us harder than a gain satisfies us. Our desire to avoid losses is so great that we might violate our own ethics if it helps us keep what we have. We gravitate toward gains, particularly when they feel certain, and struggle to make sense of loss, risk, and uncertainty. The good news is that we can reframe uncertainty as a potential gain, rather than a loss, thereby changing how we respond to it.
As a reflection exercise, review your achievements, important experiences, and most meaningful relationships. You most likely experienced uncertainty on the way there.
Next, focus on a current uncertainty and consider how you are framing it. Is it filled with supposed loss (failure, deadends) or do you see what could be gained? Make a list of your worries and the possibilities that could be waiting on the other side of the uncertainty.
Stuck in seemingly safe routines?
Many of us feel anxiety in the face of uncertainty and so we try to avoid it. But a world with too
much certainty becomes a boring, repetitive cycle from which we long to escape. We need uncertainty, and if we don't have enough of it, we will pay to introduce more into our lives. We gamble or travel to far destinations, we seek thrills in sports or other areas.
Organizations need uncertainty as well. In a recent study, Harvard professors found that when companies instituted quality-control systems like ISO 9000 to increase certainty in their production processes, they also eliminated the innovation that arose from mistakes, changes, and uncertainty. Oops!
The sweet spot is to stay in your learning zone. Consider the three development zones described by Tom Senninger (based on psychologist Lev Vygotsky's original model): panic, learning, or comfort. The panic zone is stressful and not effective, the comfort zone may be too boring. But the learning zone is the place to be for both future-prepared people and organizations.
Or consider Carol Dweck’s Fixed versus Growth Mindsets. Do you see your abilities as fixed or do you see how you develop yourself all the time? The Growth mindset frames yourself as learning and “mistakes” as useful information that don’t threaten your value as a person. With a Fixed mindset, every “mistake” threatens your self-worth.
Minimizing risk or regret?
How do you make the decision to do something uncertain? How do you know whether it's worth the risk? The truth is, you can't know in advance. But you can figure out if you should try.
Most of us are taught to minimize risks, but that’s different from minimizing regrets. Minimizing risks reduces negative surprises, but it also reduces the chances of new things happening. Regret minimization, on the other hand, is about identifying the right risks to take. What would you regret never having tried? What would you do even if you could fail - and be proud that you tried?
I applied this tactic 30 years ago when I decided to quit my job and start my own business. I was scared to give up lifetime employment and the certainty of my salary - but I knew I would regret working there for the rest of my life. I would regret never having tried! So, I did it! It has been hard at times, but I never regretted it. I learned so much and it still is fulfilling and meaningful - though not always easy.
Nathan and Susannah also talk about comparing apples and apples. One of the biggest mistakes people make is comparing the certain benefits of their current situation with the uncertain risks of the unknown. This is an unfair comparison: one that's hard for our brains because it compares known gains with risky losses. We tend to overestimate the benefits of preserving the status quo.
It also helps to remember your Why and your values. Something may be uncertain and scary, but you might find energy and motivation when you remember why you want to contribute.
What is your locus of control?
Research shows that the ability to face uncertainty seems to be related to whether you view your goals as internal (doing your best, being your best, learning) rather than external (being the best, being the most famous) and whether you view outcomes as partly outside your control versus completely inside your control.
This aligns with the Growth mindset and complexity or systems thinking. Understanding how complex systems work (and our world is a huge collection of complex adaptive systems) evokes some humility. “We don't control the world: we are successful if we are in the right place at the right time with the right skills…”
The most resilient people in the face of uncertainty adopt the perspective that the goal of life is internal and that the results are partly outside their control. They can let go of the worry that if they don't do things perfectly they might fail, and instead focus on doing their best work. You can’t do more than that.
Develop transilience
The book offers more helpful tips and tools for futurists, leaders, consultants, and other professionals navigating life and work. Think of scoring yourself on Tina Seelig's risk-o-meter, finding more certain side-projects (don’t put all your eggs in one basket), identifying your resources, the things you take for granted (appreciate your current abundance and see what you can do with it), and your plans B, C, and beyond… Read and apply it for yourself.
Last but not least, the authors offer a beautiful definition for coping with the VUCA world:
“Transilience is something beyond resilience. Resilience is being able to withstand shocks and recover. But transilience is about transformation, leaping from one state to another.
It is the moment when hardened steel turns to molten metal, or terrifying uncertainty becomes insight, wisdom, and opportunity.
The upside of uncertainty is just as real as the downsides, but like an underdog, it just needs a fair chance to show what it can do. The upside at first can feel flimsy and tenuous: possibility, hope, transformation? Really?
The downsides feel more real because they trigger fundamental warning alarms: danger, scarcity, shame, and so forth.
But uncertainty is much greater than just a deterrent. For all of us, regardless of career or circumstance, uncertainty is arguably the portal to every growth, change, and courageous act we will ever undertake.”
Next time, let’s take a look at what organizations can learn from this book about handling uncertainty. How to develop your organizational culture for the futures…?
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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